Archive

Archive for the ‘Finance Theory’ Category

Uncle Milton, 100 Years On

August 9, 2012 Leave a comment

We forget how much of today’s free market views—the language and examples we commonly use—come from Milton Friedman. He belongs in the company of Smith, Bastiat, Hayek, and Von Mises, among a few elite others, in not just espousing the virtues of free markets, but explaining them in ways the non-economist public understood intuitively.

You can see the entire run of his PBS specials here:

http://www.freetochoose.tv/

Don’t Think Like an Economist on Europe Anymore

July 13, 2012 Leave a comment

One of my largest recurring gripes is the way economic and financial theory hems folks in to narrow modes of thinking. Every single day for the last two years there have been oodles and oodles of economic analyses on the Europe situation in attempt to figure out how capital markets will react. Stop thinking like an economist—this is a political issue now.

It’s a common debate, as old as economics itself, to ask: Which trumps the other—economics or politics? This is a world where many unfathomable things take place regularly. Virtually no one could envision the LTRO, the EFSF, or any of the other creative “solutions” of the last couple years. And even if you could predict what the next jury-rigged mechanism will be, there’s no telling who or how or when it’ll happen. That’s because, yes, economics are forcing the hands of Europe ’s politicians, but in the end decisions are being made in the political forum.

There is no model or theory that guides here.

R.I.P Anna Schwartz

June 27, 2012 Leave a comment

“Anna Schwartz was one of the greatest economists of the twentieth century… Anna had done path-breaking research since the 1930s in assembling the monetary statistics that were at the heart of her three monumental books written with Milton Friedman — “A Monetary History of the United States” ( 1963), “Monetary Statistics of the United States” ( 1970) and “Monetary Trends of the United States and United Kingdom“( 1982). I had the good fortune of collaborating with her on papers ever since; we just finished writing ( with Owen Humpage of the Cleveland Fed) “ U.S. Exchange Market Operations in the Twentieth Century.”

-         Anna Schwartz, Pioneering Monetarist – Michael Bordo

Indeed. Her work will have a lasting impact for a long time to come.

RIP Ray Bradbury – A True Iconoclast

June 7, 2012 Leave a comment

The only way to beat the markets long-term in investing is to be an iconoclast. Ray Bradbury was one of our finest, and most human, sci-fi writers. He was a great writer first, and a science fiction writer second. Much like Philip K Dick, Robert Heinlein, and Isaac Asimov, his visions of the future influenced thinkers for generations to come.

Ray Bradbury, Prolific Science Fiction Writer, Dies at 91 – Laura Tillman

Futurism in general is a fascinating topic for investors to grapple with. It’s fun and awe-inspiring to think distantly into the future about what could be. But note: most every long-range forecast ends up wrong, and markets only discount a couple years into the future at the very most. Futurism is big danger for investing sanity. So have fun with it, but don’t invest today on vague notions decades in the fore. Here are a few recent favorite futuristic tomes:

To Be a Forecaster, Be a Weatherman

April 11, 2012 Leave a comment

As I say in most all my writings about forecasting and economics: Market behavior is much more like a CEAS (Complex Emergent Adaptive System) than it is a neat and tidy math-based equilibrium model. Here’s a fun piece:

Economists Have a Lot to Learn From the Weather

15 Points to Look for in a Common Stock

April 2, 2012 Leave a comment

Sometimes (actually fairly often) it’s good to revisit the investment classics that stand the test of time. From Philip Fisher’s Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, great questions to ask about a company before considering a stock investment:

Point 1: Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for at least several years?

Point 2: Does the management have a determination to continue to develop products or processes that will still further increase total sales potentials when the growth potentials of currently attractive product lines have largely been exploited?

Point 3: How effective are the company’s research and development efforts in relation to its size?

Point 4: Does the company have an above-average sales organization?

 Point 5: Does the company have a worthwhile profit margin?

Point 6: What is the company doing to maintain or improve profit margins?

Point 7: Does the company have outstanding labor and personnel relations?

Point 8: Does the company have outstanding executive relations?

Point 9: Does the company have depth to its management?

Point 10: How good are the company’s cost analysis and accounting controls?

Point 11: Are there other aspects of the business, somewhat peculiar to the industry involved, which will give the investor important clues as to how outstanding the company may be in its relation to its competition?

Point 12: Does the company have a short-range or long-range outlook in regard to profits?

Point 13: In the foreseeable future will the growth of the company require sufficient equity financing so that the larger number of shares than outstanding will largely cancel the existing stockholders’ benefit from this anticipated growth?

Point 14: Does the management talk freely to investors about its affairs when things are going well but “clam up” when troubles and disappointments occur?

Point 15: Does the company have a management of unquestionable integrity?

 

Politics and Intrade

March 6, 2012 Leave a comment

If you haven’t heard of Intrade, read this article: It’s not always right, but over the last decade or so, Intrade has been a fascinating case study in the power of market wisdom. For those market watchers also keeping an eye on political outcomes, bookmark it.

 

It’s Time to Think of Economic Ideas as Archetypes

February 22, 2012 Leave a comment

Many of the most potent economic ideas, particularly the ones that last, have morphed into a kind of disposition, a way of seeing the world, almost a style of economic consciousness. Keynesianism is a way of seeing the world, as is the Austrian way, the Adam Smith way, Malthus, Marx, the Friedman Monetarist way, and so on. They’re not fads; they constellate in and out of favor, and in and out of the public discourse and consciousness, over time. It’s almost as if economic ideas have morphed to the level of archetype—natural dispositions of the economic psyche. Understanding economic ideas in this way can help investors become less ideological and set on one set of ideas, but rather realize they are all part of a continuum of thinking on the subject.

Whatever Happened to the Double-Dip?

February 3, 2012 Leave a comment

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Happy Birthday, EVH

February 2, 2012 Leave a comment

Eddie Van Halen recently turned 57. This is not important for investors to know. But in a way, it sort of is.

Eddie was/is a heretic—he was never taught music, he never went to a formal school. Instead, he loved it so much he taught himself. There are stories of him sitting on the edge of his bed in high school, when everyone else was out, playing the guitar the whole night through, for many nights in a row. He never followed anyone else’s path (though he did learn a lot of Clapton songs), and as a result his take on the instrument is so singular and unique, you can tell it’s him in just a few notes, and no one can truly mimic him to this day.

This is what investing is all about. If you follow some program, or some other set way of thinking about the world—all you’re doing is mimicking, and that almost never works in investments because known and accepted programs get priced in. You can’t be Warren Buffett or Ken Fisher, only they can be. You have to forge your own way, your own style of thinking. You have to be unique.

From Wikipedia: The All Music Guide has described Eddie Van Halen as “Second to only Jimi Hendrix…undoubtedly one of the most influential, original, and talented rock guitarists of the 20th century.”[1] He is ranked 8th in Rolling Stone’s 2011 list of the Top 100 guitarists.[2]

I wanted to be Eddie when I was a kid. I still do. I’ve logged so many thousands of hours trying to play like him, and spent so much money on his gear…at some point around age 22 I realized I would never be a great guitarist because I was trying to be somebody else. I took that lesson into my career at Fisher Investments, and I spend all my focused thought trying to forge my own way, and learn from it when I’m wrong.

Eddie doesn’t do many interviews or speak very much, but I remember him once saying, “You only get twelve notes, it’s what you do with them that counts.” In investing, we all pretty much have the same information now, all the same newspapers and so on, for the most part. It’s what you do with the information that counts—it’s the unique insight. No computer or algorithm or statistic can do it for you.

I couldn’t be more excited for Eddie, now 57 and on the eve of the new Van Halen album and tour. The VH sound has always been both distinct and consistent, even when singers changed. And yet Ed tends to reinvent himself every time—there will be something new he pioneers in this album, some sound we’ve never heard before. If only we could all do that in investing: consistent innovation, driving the whole system forward along with us.

Happy Birthday, Eddie Van Halen!

 

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 41 other followers

%d bloggers like this: