Archive

Archive for the ‘Finance Theory’ Category

Plan Your Prosperity from Ken Fisher

December 7, 2012 Leave a comment

Ken Fisher and Lara Hoffmans have published their layperson’s guide to building a basic wealth plan — I couldn’t recommend it more.

Plan Your Prosperity

Much like his other books, Ken Fisher takes a route of empowering the average investor, being less didactic or preachy and offering usable perspectives in terms everyone can understand.

In my view, it’s one of the ultimate things a skilled expert can do for us: to give his knowledge back in a way all can participate in. Ken has seen it all, done it all, and been very good at it for very long time; it’s a pleasure to read about the fundamentals of wealth-building with all the signature wit and uncommon perspective he and Lara always bring.

I, Pencil

November 15, 2012 Leave a comment

If you’ve never read Leonard E. Read’s I, Pencil, it’s always a good time. A wonderful summation of free market principles, it’s also a document Milton Friedman referred to often. Here’s a parting lesson, straight from the pencil himself:

“The lesson I have to teach is this: Leave all creative energies uninhibited. Merely organize society to act in harmony with this lesson. Let society’s legal apparatus remove all obstacles the best it can. Permit these creative know-hows freely to flow. Have faith that free men and women will respond to the Invisible Hand. This faith will be confirmed. I, Pencil, seemingly simple though I am, offer the miracle of my creation as testimony that this is a practical faith, as practical as the sun, the rain, a cedar tree, the good earth.”

The Value of Experience

November 1, 2012 Leave a comment

Fisher Investments faithful Bill Shepherd recently opined on a number of topics. When experience like his speaks, I think we ought to listen. Here are a few thoughts:

Mutual funds were originally created to help achieve diversification—and are still helpful for those who don’t have a lot to invest, but would like a diverse portfolio. They can help investors get started in the markets, but can be expensive, due to trading and possible tax implications, and can lack the flexibility of a portfolio of stocks and fixed income. “While mutual funds make sense for some investors, it’s important to make sure you own them for a reason and/or haven’t out grown them,” says Bill Shepherd. “Meaning, you can achieve sometimes cheaper diversification buying multiple stocks than buying mutual funds—but it depends on your financial goals and what you can truly afford”, he continues. Here it’s helpful to have a money manager whose interests are aligned with yours to help guide you to optimal investing decisions in your portfolio.

Bill Shepherd recognizes there are many different avenues in the financial industry when it comes to choosing a money manager. “In general, I think one of the most important questions to ask yourself is, are my interests aligned with my financial professional’s? Said another way, will they do well if you do well?” asks Shepherd. “This may not be true in all facets of money management. Brokers, for example, may work on a commission system based on activity rather than a management fee based on the size of your portfolio like Fisher Investments. This structure allows us to align our interests with our clients. We utilize separate custodians to house client assets, so we don’t earn commissions on trades that are placed in your account, nor do we sell you products.  So our answer to that question is this—absolutely—if you do well, then we do well.”

A big challenge in investing is the culture of emotional created largely, it seems, by the media—especially now that news is available 24/7 on the internet, TV, smartphones and tablets and constantly updates. “It’s very easy to let emotional reactions lead your investing decisions, and your understanding of economics,” says Bill Shepherd. “A good example of media spreading negative sentiment about markets right now is the fiscal cliff. However, Fisher Investments believes talk about the fiscal cliff’s impending disaster is likely a lot of hot air—which unfortunately sells more for the media,” continues Shepherd. More about Fisher Investments views on the fiscal cliff can be found on MarketMinder.com.

Uncle Milton, 100 Years On

August 9, 2012 Leave a comment

We forget how much of today’s free market views—the language and examples we commonly use—come from Milton Friedman. He belongs in the company of Smith, Bastiat, Hayek, and Von Mises, among a few elite others, in not just espousing the virtues of free markets, but explaining them in ways the non-economist public understood intuitively.

You can see the entire run of his PBS specials here:

http://www.freetochoose.tv/

Don’t Think Like an Economist on Europe Anymore

July 13, 2012 Leave a comment

One of my largest recurring gripes is the way economic and financial theory hems folks in to narrow modes of thinking. Every single day for the last two years there have been oodles and oodles of economic analyses on the Europe situation in attempt to figure out how capital markets will react. Stop thinking like an economist—this is a political issue now.

It’s a common debate, as old as economics itself, to ask: Which trumps the other—economics or politics? This is a world where many unfathomable things take place regularly. Virtually no one could envision the LTRO, the EFSF, or any of the other creative “solutions” of the last couple years. And even if you could predict what the next jury-rigged mechanism will be, there’s no telling who or how or when it’ll happen. That’s because, yes, economics are forcing the hands of Europe ’s politicians, but in the end decisions are being made in the political forum.

There is no model or theory that guides here.

R.I.P Anna Schwartz

June 27, 2012 Leave a comment

“Anna Schwartz was one of the greatest economists of the twentieth century… Anna had done path-breaking research since the 1930s in assembling the monetary statistics that were at the heart of her three monumental books written with Milton Friedman — “A Monetary History of the United States” ( 1963), “Monetary Statistics of the United States” ( 1970) and “Monetary Trends of the United States and United Kingdom“( 1982). I had the good fortune of collaborating with her on papers ever since; we just finished writing ( with Owen Humpage of the Cleveland Fed) “ U.S. Exchange Market Operations in the Twentieth Century.”

-         Anna Schwartz, Pioneering Monetarist – Michael Bordo

Indeed. Her work will have a lasting impact for a long time to come.

RIP Ray Bradbury – A True Iconoclast

June 7, 2012 Leave a comment

The only way to beat the markets long-term in investing is to be an iconoclast. Ray Bradbury was one of our finest, and most human, sci-fi writers. He was a great writer first, and a science fiction writer second. Much like Philip K Dick, Robert Heinlein, and Isaac Asimov, his visions of the future influenced thinkers for generations to come.

Ray Bradbury, Prolific Science Fiction Writer, Dies at 91 – Laura Tillman

Futurism in general is a fascinating topic for investors to grapple with. It’s fun and awe-inspiring to think distantly into the future about what could be. But note: most every long-range forecast ends up wrong, and markets only discount a couple years into the future at the very most. Futurism is big danger for investing sanity. So have fun with it, but don’t invest today on vague notions decades in the fore. Here are a few recent favorite futuristic tomes:

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 41 other followers

%d bloggers like this: