Home > Forecasting, Geopolitics, Globalization, Market Cycles, Probablility, US Economy > European Recession? Look to Asia.

European Recession? Look to Asia.

According to Fisher Investments analyst Brad Pyles (read more of his work here):

The European Union (27 countries including the UK ) represents roughly 26% of global GDP. This is similar to Asia at the end of 1997. As Asia went through its own solvency crisis (better known as the Asian Contagion), its GDP fell -0.6% in 1998 (see table below). While this caused Asia to underperform, it did not cause a global bear market. Furthermore, when you exclude China (whose GDP dropped near a two decade low but remained above 7% y/y), Asia’s GDP dropped -1.9% in 1998 while composing a slightly smaller percentage of global GDP than the current EU, but still a larger portion of global GDP than the current EMU.

This appears to show that a large portion of the global economy can modestly go negative for an extended period of time without causing a bear market, provided the global financial system remains intact and the rest of the world continues to grow. Consider that even the large 1998 correction did not occur until the Asian Contagion’s secondary effects took down Long Term Capital Management and threatened the global financial system.

Presented by Fisher Investments: Asia GDP vs. EU GDP from 1994-2010

Presented by Fisher Investments: Asia GDP vs. EU GDP from 1994-2010

 

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