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Archive for June, 2011

Market Volume Doesn’t Matter

June 30, 2011 Leave a comment

One of the great market myths is looking at stock market volume as a gauge of whether returns for a particular day are “real”. As the accepted wisdom goes, more volume = more conviction in the rally. But why? Prices are set at the margin anyway, so what’s volume really got to do with it?

Nevertheless, such myths persist. I fully expect to hear more droning from pundits this week to the tune of “Sure, markets are up nicely this week, but it’s on low volume, so I’m not convinced.”

In truth, volume has never been a reliable indicator of the “realness” of a rally or a decline—those who wait for such indicators for “conviction”, “confidence”, or whatever else, will more often have missed the market’s move by then.

Moral Suasion and European Banks

June 29, 2011 Leave a comment

I read all sorts of economic rationales for this or that plan tied to making the second Greek bailout work. And that’s all fine and well. But the issue of economics at this point is almost secondary—what matters most right now is the power of moral suasion on eurozone constituent banks with high Greek debt exposure. And that power can be quite potent when the existence of the euro is at stake. Expect private banks to comply with public wishes through the summer.

Consumers versus Tech

June 27, 2011 Leave a comment

My boss Ken Fisher recently wrote about Apple in a Forbes column back in April:

As an investor, be careful not to lump Apple in with technology firms. Apple is a classic consumer discretionary products company–superb at using technology to create new, different and better products. Apple products are cool and coveted, and that’s why its retail stores have stayed crowded during the Great Recession. Real technology firms actually create technology but are less apt to create buzz among the masses. And yes, they often eliminate jobs, at least in the short term.

To that precise point, it should come as little surprise JC Penney recently hired Apple’s Sr. VP of Retail Ron Johnson as its new CEO. Prior to Apple he was a Target merchandising executive for 15 years. Simply, you wouldn’t see such a move if Apple wasn’t very aware of the fact that it’s a consumer products company. Or, said differently, an Intel exec would not make nearly as good a fit for a pure retailer like JCP.

The lesson: know the end markets of your investments. It’s infrequent, but a company’s traditional classification can be misleading in terms of what drives its results.

Fisher Investments Analyst Book Review: Food Politics

June 24, 2011 Leave a comment

Food Politics: What Everyone Needs to Know — Robert Paarlberg

For my job at Fisher Investments, I’m out on the road quite a bit each year, speaking to investors from all over the country. One of the things that used to amaze to me when I started, but doesn’t anymore, is that people everywhere pretty much ask the same questions.

Oddly though (because at Fisher Investments, I deal in stock markets for the most part), I get asked about food a lot. Everything from the supply of it (farming), to the price of it (the balance between supply and demand along with myriad government distortions), to the demand of it (population growth, poverty and income, and nutrition and obesity). Of course, a good bit of it is relevant to investing—food makes a difference in inflation, economic growth, commodities prices, politics, and the earnings of many very large publicly traded corporations.

On that note, I recommend Robert Paarlberg’s Food Politics: What Everyone Needs to Know for a few reasons.

Paarlberg approaches the subject as a political issue. Which is right. It’s not that food has become “politicized,” so much as food itself has always been a natural political issue. What I mean is, how a nation or society views food, what we do with it, how we regulate it—is about as old as civilization itself. Semantics aside, viewing food as politics allows Paarlberg to approach the subject with as much objectivity as is likely possible—recognizing that activists, regulators, farmers and their interest groups, corporations, even consumers, all have ideological bents to this issue and their maneuvering among each other is what dictates what food is produced, and at what price. Said differently, understanding the economics of food is barely half the battle in understanding how its priced, who gets it, and why.

This also means that people involved in food politics will probably hate this book equally, which is to the acute advantage of the reader looking for pragmatism on these issues. The organic-sustainable types will feel undermined and short-shrifted; the farmers and corporations (from companies like ArcherDanielsMidland to McDonald’s) will also feel vaguely attacked.

Second, this book is short, and written in a style allowing you to skip around as you like. Much like Steve Forbes’ excellent How Capitalism Will Save Us from last year, Paarlberg’s book takes one topic a chapter (like obesity) and then asks a series of questions tied to that issue and answers them in pithy fashion. This is a good approach because most will only want to see the basics of these issues laid out without all the jargon that can go with them.

The “what everyone needs to know” part of the title is maybe a tad much. This book isn’t definitive in the informational or authoritative sense. (But then again, what is?)  But it’s as good an introduction into thinking about the real political undercurrents of food as I’ve encountered, and will at least set the table for better thinking on this issue outside of what you hear at farmer’s markets or McDonald’s drive thrus or nightly news bloviating.

 

MacKay’s Classic Free!

June 23, 2011 Leave a comment

Charles MacKay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds has long been a classic—written long ago, it’s still one of the last words in investing psychology.

Now you can get it free (link below) on Amazon’s Kindle reader. If you’ve never read it, now you have no excuse.

Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds — Charles MacKay

Deleveragists Can’t Have it Both Ways

June 22, 2011 Leave a comment

Increasingly, I hear the tide of bears arguing that persistent consumer deleveraging is “chronic” and will hinder consumption—and therefore the economy—from here forward.

This demand-side theory sets aside the inconvenient truth that deleveraging has been going on in the US more or less for the last 2 years as GDP hits new all-time highs and personal spending is well up from recession lows. In truth, today’s Deleveragists are by and large the same bears that said consumer over-indebtedness would be the death of us all too through the bulk of last decade.

Which is it? Or, better, what’s the magic leverage number that will make everyone comfortable and happy?

My sense is that no such number exists. Household debt levels can and will be used as a rhetorical device to prove whichever case is convenient for the arguer. A plain accounting of such things relative to GDP and capital markets performance over history tells us otherwise.

The Phantom Tollbooth as Economic Document

June 17, 2011 Leave a comment

Norton Juster’s classic children’s story The Phantom Tollbooth ostensibly has nothing to do with investing and economics, yet to my view, it is foundational. I bought a copy for my 3 year old nephew the other day, and ended up reading it myself on a plane ride today.

It struck me that every economist should read and heed this story. It’s as good or better at wordplay than Lewis Caroll, but goes to greater lengths to show the distortive, squirrely properties of words and numbers, and how often they’re used to obfuscate. Aside from lawyers, few do that better than economists to both make a display of “rigor” and also to veil the inherent uncertainty and slipperiness underlying most analyses.

A snappy and fun summer read.

(Make sure to get the version with Jules Feiffer’s classic illustrations.)

Market Yips

June 16, 2011 Leave a comment

Days like yesterday often give investors the yips. If you’re investing for the long term, yesterday is not a day to sweat too much. Big up years, up a little years, and down years all have big individual up and down days. Stick with your strategy and don’t let market down days yip you into mistakes.

 

Fisher Investments Analyst Book Review: Hardcore Entrepreneurial Candor

June 10, 2011 Leave a comment

How to Get Rich: One of the World’s Greatest Entrepreneurs Shares His Secrets— Felix Dennis

The Narrow Road: A Brief Guide to the Getting of Money— Felix Dennis

Here are the books containing those things that every great, rich business owner knows in his/her little black heart (kidding!), but is just too darn scared to say publically (not kidding). Felix Dennis’s books are no inspirational fables like Richard Schultz’s Onward: How Starbucks Fought for Its Life without Losing Its Soul. Rather, this is hardcore entrepreneurial candor—“the getting of money” in raw form.

And both books are just such great fun. I liked the first one so much I immediately picked up the second. Even if you find Mr. Dennis and his views callous—abhorrent even—it’s a jolly good ride to see how his mind works. Any true and experienced capitalist can’t help but smile while thumbing through these pages. And Mr. Dennis does it all with a poet’s touch—he’s a notorious man of the arts. Some of his tastes run sublime, like his affinity for John Dryden and Seneca’s stoic letters. And some profane—he’s the founder and owner of Maxim magazine and other such, um, provocative periodicals.

What I loved most about these books is they say stuff corporate foot soldiers will likely cringe at. And yet, most management or “get rich” books are aimed at these very folks—their disingenuous advice doesn’t align with starker reality. So Mr. Dennis believes he’s doing the working community a service by relating such uncommon truths—and he is. Those indubitable truths are (and most entrepreneurs will no doubt nod their heads at these): You don’t need to be smart or especially talented at all to be rich. In fact, most of the smartest folks will never really be rich because they’re too smart to be so risk-loving as to pursue big-time wealth, which is a low-odds game. Most of the smartest folks will spend much of their lives making their employers—those risk-loving entrepreneurs—richer. (Imagine reading that in the next warm and fuzzy self help business book you pick up at the airport!)

The risk averse need not apply to becoming really rich (at least of their own volition); you’ve got to put it on the line, expose yourself to the risks of solvency, litigation, regulation and all the rest—you’ve got to be a principal, an owner. Smart people know the odds of being a really successful entrepreneur are low. Those that make riches are a wily, gritty, persistent, never-say-die bunch who aren’t easily deterred and are willing to put their livelihoods—the whole shebang—on the line, daily. Which aligns with perhaps Mr. Dennis’s greatest advice: This is all a game and you should take it as such. At a certain point, money doesn’t matter much in life. Health does, family does, love does. Money doesn’t. Mr. Dennis knows because he spent many years destroying himself with drugs and women, all with the money he made. In this, his anecdotes are archetypal and fascinating in the image of the classic grandiose, bellicose, business titan. The whole endeavor of the “getting of money” is a game of sorts for he who isn’t so attached to it—the understanding of that fact makes the strategies and tactics of getting rich all the more clear. Funny how life works, but that’s darn true.

A few other tips and topics worth contemplating:

  • Don’t ever ever ever give up ownership, any of it.
  • Remain razor-focused on getting rich (if that’s your goal), not meaning or your “personal journey,” not people, not learning, etc.
  • Delegate! Don’t try to do everything. Hire the right talent to do all or as much as you can.
  • Never never never give in. Persistence is perhaps the most potent attribute of the eventually very wealthy.
  • Bootstrap everything! Avoid investor capital as much as you possibly can, it’s a dirty business.

One place to disagree with Mr. Dennis: He feels direct company ownership is the only true way to get really rich. My boss, Ken Fisher, in his Ten Roads to Riches, outlines more ways and features just as much candor and pith, and actually quite a lot more insight, on how wealth is created in specific ways. Mr. Dennis remains very abstract and philosophical in his writings.

I don’t know that all, or even a vast majority, of richy-rich business owners act or feel as Mr. Dennis does. But my guess is a heck of a lot of them do. Business success is not nearly as much technical skill and vocation as people make it out to be (particularly in those industries that covet MBAs and other downright certifiable credentials). A lot of it is about understanding your market and audience, creativity, instinct, experience, guts, and a worldview that will allow for big success. (Yes, folks are often their own worst enemies in this regard, spending oodles of time on stuff that won’t make them any richer.)

So if you want to know how to get rich, if you want to know how the mind of a rich entrepreneur works or if you just want a glimpse of hardcore pragmatic thinking on these topics, here are your books.

 

*The content contained in this article represents only the opinions and viewpoints of the Fisher Investments editorial staff.

Fisher Investments on Twitter

June 9, 2011 Leave a comment

 As a follow up to the post I did about Twitter May 12, 2011my company, Fisher Investments, recently announced its foray into social media.  An excerpt from the announcement:

 “Fisher Investments is beginning with some of the most widely-used social media platforms, including Facebook, Twitter, Flickr and YouTube. Through its YouTube channel, Fisher Investments showcases a number of videos, including educational clips, market commentary by CEO Ken Fisher, and roundtable discussions with the firm’s investment decision makers. Flickr is a photo sharing site with photos of the company work environment. OnFacebook and Twitter, Fisher Investments streams snippets of content from its MarketMinder website and Fisher Investments Press book series.”  The full announcement from Fisher Investments can be found here:http://www.pr.com/press-release/327363

It will be interesting to follow how other financial services companies, hedge fund managers and the like utilize this relatively new technology in the future. You can also follow Investing IQ on Twitter. 

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